Posted by
Dave Smith on Thursday, November 05, 2009 6:37:33 PM
Although I had no original intention of writing a sequel to the post
"Precisely Inaccurate", events have dictated otherwise. According to
this story
from the Associated Press, the methodology for calculating the number
of jobs that have been "saved or created" by the so-called stimulus
bill is even more inaccurate, skewed, and unbelievable than even
skeptics imagined.
It appears that upon reviewing the reports, the Associated Press found the following (emphasis added):
more than two-thirds of 14,506 jobs credited to the recovery act
under spending by just one federal office were overstated because they
counted pay increases for existing workers as jobs saved.
The
inflated job count is at least partly the product of the administration
instructing local community agencies that received money to count the
raises as jobs saved. ...
...More than 250 other community agencies in the U.S. similarly
reported saving jobs when using the money to give pay raises, pay for
training and continuing education, extend employee work hours or buy
equipment, according to their spending reports.
[A] Georgia
program inflated the numbers even further by claiming the recovery
money saved more jobs than the number of people it actually employs.
The agency employs 508 people but claimed 935 jobs were saved because
of confusion over government reports.
Not
surprisingly, the government officials downplayed the obvious errors in
job creation numbers -- according to the AP reporters, these errors
"would probably be balanced out by other errors that underreported
jobs". Well then.
The bottom line is this: neither the
government nor anyone else has the ability to measure something as
complex as how many jobs are created or destroyed by a particular piece
of legislation; the overall economy is too large and complex. Anyone
claiming specific numbers regarding jobs "saved or created" by the
so-called "stimulus" legislation is either lying or delusional.
Neither condition is particularly inspiring.