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Shipping Jobs Overseas?

A common refrain among protectionists, economic nationalists, and other advocates of strong government intervention in the economy is that so-called "big corporations" are "shipping jobs overseas".  This charge is used particularly often with regards to manufacturing jobs, where the specter of jobs fleeing en masse to China, India, and Mexico is described in breathless terms. 

Whether the goal is "renegotiating" (or ending altogether) free trade agreements like NAFTA, bailouts of domestic industries, or some sort of tax code manipulation to "reward" companies who "create American jobs", the bogeyman of choice is what Ross Perot dubbed the "giant sucking sound" in the 1990s -- particularly when a politician is campaigning in former manufacturing centers in "Rust Belt" areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.  Along with the loss of jobs themselves, the so-called "trade deficit" is often mentioned, noting that it is at record highs and that it somehow signifies loss of American jobs and a manufacturing base; foreign capital investment is often also a target of political derision.  The tactic is familiar to politicians on the left, like President Barack Obama and Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, and on the right, like commentators Pat Buchanan and Phyllis Schafly.

The facts, however, continue to show otherwise.  As documented by the pro-trade Center for Trade Policy Studies, foreign investment by multi-national companies tends to be focused on opening up new markets to goods and services -- to making these companies more profitable by reaching new customers -- rather than a method for shipping out American jobs and moving capital out of the US.  As Dan Griswold, Director of the Center, points out, "[a] successful company operating in a favorable business climate will tend to expand employment at both its domestic and overseas operations. More activity and sales abroad often require the hiring of more managers, accountants, lawyers, engineers, and production workers at the parent company."

One by one, Griswold's research (meticulously referenced to easily obtainable data) punctures the myths promulgated by the anti-trade crowd.  Worried about the US manufacturing base moving factories to China, India, and Mexico?  Then consider this:  "[b]between 2003 and 2007, U.S. manufacturing companies sent an average of $2 billion a year in direct investment to China and $1.9 billion to Mexico"; meanwhile, US corporations were investing $165 billion per year in the USA.  An additional $15 billion per year was being invested in manufacturing in the United States by foreign corporations during this time.  These data show that while, yes, American companies were spreading their manufacturing wings overseas, they were investing over 80 times as much here at home.

But what about the loss of manufacturing jobs?  True, the US workforce employed in manufacturing shrank by 3 million in the years 2000-2006.  But, as shown above, corporations were making capital investments in the US; those investments, rather than workers, were in technology and automation.  Those jobs weren't being shipped overseas, they were being replaced with more efficient technology, creating other high-tech jobs elsewhere in the labor market.  Meanwhile, "[a]n increase in 172,000 jobs at U.S.-owned affiliates in China was partially offset by an actual decline of almost 100,000 jobs at affiliates in Mexico".  The "giant sucking sound" is a fabrication, a myth.

One by one, the justifications for increased government intrusion in the marketplace fall by the wayside when examined more closely, when facts are employed rather than innuendo.  A free market and free trade, unencumbered by government interference, management, or directives is still the best way to promote prosperity.
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Confidence, Government, and Liberty

In response to this posting titled "Confidence" on the always interesting and thought-provoking blog Cafe Hayek, I posted the following comment:

I don't think anyone can say with certainty what "causes" confidence, to what degree, or even what degree of confidence is "healthy" for an economy.  I would say it is safer to say that like most things in economics, the answers to those questions change by the minute and the mile -- it is definitely different everywhere, changes over time, and varies when comparing small discrete parts of the economy versus the economy as a whole.

What I do think we can say is this:  while government may or may not be able to enact policies or rhetoric that induce confidence, and may or may not be able even to ascertain just how much confidence is the "right amount", the more government stops intruding on the lives of individuals and the economy, the more liberty we'll all have to pursue our own best interests.

The government should worry more about making sure that one's "pursuit of happiness" doesn't impede or infringe upon another's, and less about what outcome is reached.  We might not be more confident, but we'll certainly be more free.
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How's This for "Stimulus"?

The so-called "economic stimulus" package being considered by Congress continues to grow.  President Obama and Congressional leaders are talking of spending between $750 billion and perhaps as much as $1 trillion in new government programs and "targeted" tax cuts.  Among the items being considered for funding in the name of economic recovery are programs for birth control, National Endowment for the Arts, roads and bridges, "green" technology, power grid upgrades, beach restoration, colleges and universities, state governments, unemployment benefit extensions, and the list goes on.  Supposedly, this government spending will jump start the economy through spending other peoples' money.  Of course, the spending will have to be financed by borrowing, so the spending is ultimately pushed down the line to future generations.  While some tax cuts have been added to the package in the name of gaining bipartisan support (usually a scary thought, as I discuss here), ultimately the "stimulus" is all classic Keynesian, demand-side government intervention.  Of course, government spending takes time to get from the approval stage to the startup stage, meaning that construction and other projects, even if there is an economic jolt to be provided.  And does such government spending really spur long-term growth?  History doesn't seem to suggest that it does.

But if the government is going to spend three-quarters of a trillion dollars, why not provide an instant jolt to the economy while setting up long-term growth?  According to estimates pulled from the IRS and The Tax Policy Center, the government will collect approximately $1.22 trillion dollars in individual income taxes and approximately $350 billion in corporate income taxes this year.  This means that for half the price of the spending in the "stimulus" plan, or even for roughly the same amount as the supposedly "pro-business" tax cuts being considered now by Congress, the government could just cut out the corporate tax altogether -- an across-the-board zeroing out.  Want to save some money?  Just cut the corporate rate in half then, and assuming an $800 billion dollar total package you could still cut personal income taxes by 50%.  To speed up the infusion of cash into the economy, the IRS could instantly change the withholding formulas, meaning that workers receiving paychecks would see a raise on their very next check.  Want to be more parsimonious?  Again, simple:  reduce corporate taxes by 33% and personal income taxes by 33% for a total "stimulus" of around $500 billion.

Perhaps more important than the instant cash infusion would be the effect on future economic activity.  Companies paying less money to the government would have more money to spend on investing in new equipment, hiring new workers, or even paying more dividends to shareholders (giving them more money to save or invest in turn, or making retirement accounts more profitable).  Such a move would most likely be a welcome sign to the financial markets, meaning upticks in stocks and more liquidity in the credit markets.  Moreover, the lower tax burden on businesses would improve US competitiveness, providing incentives for companies to create jobs and invest here.

Best of all from an economic standpoint, such a move could be enshrined as permanent policy, rather than just a short-term spending spree.  People more confident in what the future holds are more likely to make larger purchases, like houses and cars.  But there's an advantage beyond simple economics:  allowing people to keep more of their own money to spend as they please results in a net increase in individual liberty as well, and in a better standard of living for individuals and families, while reducing the power and influence of government.

Government action that strengthens individual liberty, limits government, stimulates the economy, and reduces the incentive for corruption:  how's that for "stimulus"!
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The Tyrannical Nature of Bipartisanship

Writing in 1993 about the failed Clinton health care fiasco, conservative political commentator George Will decried complex government endeavors built on slim majorities.  His premise, as I remember it, was that large-scale changes in government should be prefaced by a building of consensus rather than strong-armed though the legislature and foisted on an unwilling, or at least unconvinced, public.

Will's point has some merit:  a government undertaking that results in a deeply divided citizenry is a potential firestorm; see:  the Vietnam War for example.  So-called "wedge issues" can cut an electorate deeply, undercutting the notion that intelligent people can disagree on an issue and replacing it with a the idea that competitors are enemies instead of opponents.  Such a tone makes reconciliation difficult.

I would submit, however, that there are few things more worrisome than any act of government that has the word "bipartisan" in its description.  Consider as an example the current "economic stimulus" plan under consideration by Congress and being pushed by President Obama.  Pushing aside for the moment that last year Congress overwhelmingly (in a bipartisan manner) passed and President Bush signed over $700 billion in "stimulus" (aka "bailout") funds, in addition to the hundreds of billions that the Federal Reserve used to prop up banks and insurance companies (money used, among other things, for fat bonuses and spa visits), Obama and Congressional leaders are pushing for another $700-900 billion in funds to go to supposedly "shovel-ready" projects in an attempt to stimulate the economy.  Wanting to bring Congressional Republicans into the fold in supporting the endeavor, Obama has proposed including various tax cuts and other "pro-business" measures in the package.

The approach seems to be working, as news reports indicate that the legislation will likely garner fairly widespread government support.  Thus, the stimulus package (or, as new White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel prefers, "economic recovery package) will be considered a bipartisan endeavor, proof of our new President's willingness to reach across the aisle and collect bipartisan support.  The true result will be a federal budget deficit in 2009 likely not only to be of record size, but possibly twice as big as the previous record.  In return, we'll get more bridges and roads built (hopefully not to "nowhere"), and everyone from colleges and universities to state governments to beachfronts have their hands out ready for the bipartisan cash infusion.

So the likely result of the President's bipartisan approach is an additional $200-400 billion in additional national debt, along with the idea that the increase in government can't be pinned on the Democrats -- hey, Republicans got in the act as well, so who are they to complain?  Instead of fighting the bill and perhaps turning public opinion at least against its most egregious expenditures, possibly even trimming down its mammoth size, the bill is now bipartisan and getting bigger and more expensive.  Of course, since government doesn't actually create the money it spends, that means more hard-earned income must be confiscated from the paychecks of working Americans to foot the bill.

Other examples abound.  The "bipartisan" Campaign Finance Reform (aka McCain-Feingold) expanded government control over our political speech and campaigns; the "bipartisan" No Child Left Behind greatly expanded government expenditures in and control over education.  The "bipartisan" S-CHIP program expanded government intrusion in health care by creating a new entitlement for the children.  The "bipartisan" Medicare Drug Program expanded government intrusion in health care by creating a new entitlement for elderly folks -- everyone else now pays for their prescription drugs.

The moral of this story?  Whenever you hear the word "bipartisan" applied to a government act, hold on to your wallet and your liberties.  Rather than celebrating a spirit of "working together" in Washington, we should instead fear the tyrannical nature of bipartisanship.
Tags: Politics  
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Guess Who's Coming To Dinner?

Less than one week before his inauguration as our 44th President, Barack Obama spent an evening with conservative pundits and commentators (and at least one free market capitalist).  According to reports, the dinner party took place at the home of George Will, with other guests including CNBC's Larry Kudlow, Charles Krauthammer, William Kristol, and others.

Perhaps the meeting was nothing more than a stunt or part of some sort of charm offensive.  Perhaps, like Rush Limbaugh apparently said on his radio show in discussing the meeting, it was simply Obama trying to define who the "conservatives" are, choosing those he found likely to be vulnerable to his dialog; however, people like Will and Krauthammer seem pretty well established with other 30 years of work; Kristol served as Vice President Dan Quayle's chief of staff; Peggy Noonan was a speechwriter for Ronald Reagan; Larry Kudlow worked in the Reagan budget office and has his own show on CNBC, and Paul Gigot is an editorial page editor for the Wall Street Journal.  These people are already well established.

Perhaps Obama took nothing from the meeting that will bear fruit down the road.  But I would submit that discussing tax cuts and free markets with Kudlow, the dangers of Hamas and a nuclear Iran with Krauthammer, or the follies of overreaching government with Will would be beneficial to anyone, particularly someone who probably doesn't hear these ideas articulated with such intellectual clarity as people like these offer.  If any of these guests at least gave him some thought on which to ponder, the result was a positive one.  At the very least, he was willing to listen.  Could anyone seriously expect such an act of outreach from a (God forbid) President-elect Al Gore, John Kerry, or Joe Biden?

Lovers of liberty and free market capitalism had a rough row to hoe in the 2008 election, as neither candidate exhibiting a great propensity towards limiting government intrusion in our private lives and the economy.  I suspect that most who voted did so for McCain, with metaphorically-pinched nose.  That the President-elect would spend a night breaking bread with people ideologically opposed to him on most fronts during one of the most busy weeks of his life -- a week when most Presidents-elect have chosen the audience of comforting supporters and yes-men and to bask in the adoration of the public -- may not provide any long-term benefits, but it is at least a start.  If the Secret Service doesn't end up taking away his now-famous Blackberry, maybe he'll hit up Kudlow, Gigot, or Krauthammer for some quick thoughts during the next big debate on healthcare, taxes, or foreign policy. 
Tags: Politics  
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Betsy, He Hit Me Back!

My mother runs a small business, a day care out of my parents' house.  As with any endeavor involving children, there are plenty of "kids say the darnedest things" moments, and I remember one in particular.  One of the kids got into tattle-tell mode and told Mom "Betsy, he hit me back!"  Obviously, the child got in trouble, since hitting "back" implies that he hit first.  He seemed oblivious to why he should be the one in trouble, apparently having a misplaced sense of personal entitlement and a yet-unformed sense of self-defense.

I'm reminded of this story with the current Israeli incursion into Gaza to fight the terrorist group Hamas that has control over Gaza.  In 2005, Israel pulled out all settlements in the Gaza Strip, as well as soldiers and military installations.  In the Palestinian elections that followed in 2006, Hamas, a terrorist organization backed militarily and monetarily by Iran, assumed control of the government, after which a civil war broke out between Hamas and the formerly ruling Fatah faction.  Hamas assumed control of the Gaza strip following that fighting.

Starting years before, Hamas had been launching missile attacks into civilian areas of Israel as well as suicide bombers, keeping with their stated goal of the destruction of the very state of Israel.  These attacks have been in place for the past 7 years or so on a fairly regular basis, and have sometimes been followed by Israeli retaliation, typically targeted against specific individuals within Hamas, sometimes with civilian casualties claimed by the Palestinians.  There are accounts of arms smuggling into Gaza, largely from Iran.

Having had enough, Israel launched a military offensive into the Gaza Strip in late 2008:  air strikes followed by a ground invasion.  As they did with their Hezbollah-related incursion into Lebanon in 2006, Israel warned civilians that the attacks were coming.  Hamas, however, like other like-minded terrorist organizations, is known for hiding militants and weapons in civilian areas of residence, hospitals, and mosques.

The Hamas response to the Israeli military incursion has been interesting, to say the least.  It amounts to little more than  "Betsy, they hit us back".  Unfortunately, many in the world seem to consider this a valid entreaty, and have condemned Israel for the exercise, ignoring the years of rocket attacks and suicide bombings perpetrated against Israel.  There is talk of cease-fires and "proportionate response", without explanation of what a "proportionate response" is to rocket attacks and suicide bombings.

I feel bad for the Palestinian people.  They've been treated harshly by their own Arabic cousins in the Middle East, and they have been led by corrupt and cruel leaders more focused on destroying Israel than raising up their own people into prosperity.  They, like all people, deserve liberty and self-determination.  But to get that, they need to understand that they must pursue that end, rather than destruction.  They need to send their children out to be educated or learn a skill or start a business, not to blow themselves up as suicide bombers.  They need to stop hitting first, then complaining when they get hit back.
Tags: middle east  
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A Tired Idea

In response to this article in the Chronicle, I sent the following letter:

Re:  Oil Profits Tax:  Windfall?

In his article denouncing the so-called "obscene profits" made by the "oil industry", Mr. Madsen seems to forget or ignore one very important point:  the purpose of any business is to make profits; why would the ability to do that successfully by providing a product that makes life more enjoyable and productive for millions (while providing a return on investment for shareholders) be "obscene"?

Mr. Madsen never defines precisely what objective standard constitutes an "obscene" or "windfall" profit, but seems not to realize that while a company like ExxonMobil has been bringing in large profits, they've paid even more in taxes -- the government makes more off each gallon of gas or barrel of oil than the company that explores for it, invests in the equipment to procure it, and refines it into products we use and need.

It seems to me that the oil industry, like most businesses in the US, is not guilty of "obscene profits" but rather is subject to "obscene taxation".  The only windfall recipients are state and federal governments.

Sincerely,
Dave Smith
Houston, TX
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A Trillion Here, A Trillion There...

According to the quote popularly attributed to him, Sen. Everett Dirksen once said of Congressional appropriations "a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money".  One wonders if Sen. Dirksen realized that his flippant regard of taxpayer money would look parsimonious 50 years hence, as the floodgates of government spending have opened to previously unimaginable levels.

In fighting the current economic "crisis",  the government has already spent at least a trillion dollars.  President-elect Obama is calling for an "economic stimulus package" of close to another trillion dollars.  And now, state governors are asking for their own trillion dollar bailout.  A trillion here, a trillion there, now it seems we're talking about real money.

With the proposed bailout of state governments, what is ultimately being asked is for residents of states with low tax burdens and/or effective government management to subsidize those with high tax burdens and/or ineffective management.  This, of course, means that state governments have less incentive to be good and efficient stewards of their taxpayers' money, as well as perhaps prolonging the political careers of ineffective government officials.  Federal money to the states in this regard will incentivize more government programs and more wasteful spending.

But there's another issue involved with all these bailouts and the trillions of dollars the government is doling out:  how is the government going to pay for all this?  Obviously, there are only three ways, and all of them have deleterious long term effects on the economy and on individual liberty.

The first option is for the government to raise taxes.  This means less money in the hands of the citizens who earned it; instead, the government is deciding that it knows better than individuals and families how their own money should be spent, how their own property is best utilized.  Every dollar taxpayers send to the government is a dollar that can't be used for school supplies, rent or mortgage, food, or a new car or vacation. 

The second option is for the government to borrow money.  Of course, our government already owes trillions, not to mention long term commitments that are mandated spending but not reflected in the actual debt.  Borrowing simply kicks the can further down the road, meaning that future generations will pay for our bailouts now.  It also crowds out raises interest rates, making private borrowing more expensive.

The third option is simply to print more money.  But doing this devalues our currency, meaning the money we already hold buys less.  Inflation is great for debtors -- you're repaying a loan with cheaper dollars -- but horrible for investors and for creditors.  There's already a supposed "credit crunch", so the last thing we want is to have less incentive to provide credit.

At its heart, any bailout plan is a government giveaway of one person's property to another and an establishment of a special privilege for one group at the expense of another.  Government is at its worst when it is acting thusly.  The federal government should say no to the states and let the state governments work out their own recovery.
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