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Blowing Bubbles

The current financial situation is complicated (so we're told, and I tend to believe this), but boiled down to the basics, it seems to be based on two main things:  the housing "bubble", and bad loans, with an underlying theme of greed and failed free market policies.  In a previous post, I detailed how it was government policy, not the free market, that fueled the so-called "subprime contagion" -- the bad loans.  But what caused the housing bubble?

First, a thought experiment.  Consider two investments with the original names of Investment A and Investment B.  Both investments have been solid over the long term, and in recent years both have been in a bull market.  If you invest in A, you will pay a 20% tax on all profit you make.  If you invest in B, however, you can make up to $500,000 in profit tax-free before paying that 20% tax.  Into which investment do you think the most capital is going to flow?

Now consider further:  if more money starts chasing a particular item, what happens to the price?  Economics 101 would say that the price would increase.  We saw this same phenomenon in the mid-to-late 1990s with the tech bubble -- investors were throwing good money after bad at tech stocks, in search of the next Yahoo, WorldCom, Oracle, Microsoft, etc. without regard to whether or not the companies were solid and actually turning a profit.  Tech stock prices soared, and as long as investors were able to turn around and sell those stocks at an even higher price, the money was flowing.  But, like all speculative bubbles, nothing can go up indefinitely, particularly when the underlying fundamentals are missing; the tech bubble burst, leaving many investors high and dry, and a little bit lighter in the wallet.  Investors like Warren Buffet and Bob Brinker foresaw this and moved into other investment areas.

Now consider this:  in 1997, Congressional negotiators and the Clinton White House struck a deal that would enable a cut in the capital gains tax.  The compromise included a new $500,000 exemption on the profits from the sale of a home, with no such exemption for the profits from other investments.  Such an exemption played well to various factions:  realtors and mortgage companies favored it because it increased demand for their products; investors favored it because it enabled the cut in the capital gains rate.  The market distortion enacted by the exemption had no real opposition, as no well-organized special interest was immediately impacted -- people didn't start losing money on their homes until nearly 10 years later, and it is difficult to measure the money that would have gone into other investments had there been no artificial disincentive.

As one might deduce from the thought experiment above, thus was triggered the housing bubble.  With the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, the capital gains tax rate was brought down further, from 20% to 15%, but the tax favorability of homes versus other investments stood, continuing to fuel the bubble.  But again, bubbles eventually burst, and with the subprime problems kicking in (also, as discussed in a previous posting, incentivized by government policy that distorted the market) the end to the housing boom was signaled.

So, we see that both main aspects to the current financial crisis -- the subprime market and the housing bubble -- were not failures of free market capitalism but rather the logical outcome of government policy, and bipartisan government policy at that.  Of course, we shouldn't worry:  the politicians are working on a fix; of course, it is a fix that depends not restoring the free market, but rather on government intrusion on the market meant to fix the problems caused by previous government intrusion.  Surely we can trust the politicians to get it right this time, right?
Tags: economics  
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Business As Usual: NOT A Failure of Capitalism

The descriptions have ranged from "meltdown" to the oft-used "crisis", but whatever one calls it, the US financial sector is a mess.  The government has responded by facilitating the breakup of a former Wall Street titan (Bear Stearns) allowing another to fail (Lehman Brothers), a bailout of an insurance giant (AIG), and a takeover of two "government sponsored entities" (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).  Much of this is an extension of what started as the so-called "subprime contagion" -- the defaulting of mortgage loans made to higher credit risks, coupled with an overall bursting of the housing price bubble.  The activist government response is predictable, as is the political rhetoric:  the situation is most commonly blamed on a lack of government regulation and overzealous capitalists on Wall Street. 

The common storyline is that those greedy capitalists need to be more effectively reigned in, lest they hungrily feed on the economically powerless like vampires at a blood drive.  The conventional wisdom, especially with the campaign rhetoric, is that mortgage companies were using "predatory lending practices" to prey on unsuspecting consumers, herding them into loans they couldn't afford -- all in the name of profit.

But is the conventional storyline correct?  To paraphrase a famous Reagan quotation, is the government part of the solution or part of the problem?  Is our current problem the result of too little regulation of the market, or of too much?  Was this current mess a surprise, or was it preventable?

One explanation of the mortgage-market crash proposed by free market-oriented commentators is that banks were given "encouragement" from the government to make more loans to low-income, high-risk home buyers -- those sub-prime mortgages.  They were also encouraged to loan money with looser rules on down payments, dropping the amount required to secure the loan.  A story in the New York Times from 1999 provides some potential explanation:

the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders. The action ... will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans.

...Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people...

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer.

...By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

...In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.

Even within that same article was the following warning that seems 9 years ahead of its time (emphasis added):
''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''

Others repeated that warning later.  As detailed by Cafe Hayek, a George Mason economist had this to say in 2001 about Fannie and Freddie (emphasis added):
These privileges do more than just give the GSEs a funding cost advantage, they also reinforce the perception of a federal guarantee on GSE debt obligations.  In order to avoid a federal bailout like the one we saw with the savings and loan industry, policymakers may want to consider a variety of alternatives, including privatization of one or more of the GSEs.

Further warning was detailed in this article from Business Week in 2002 (emphases added):
And mortgage lenders are willing to oblige, even in the case of buyers who might not have qualified before. The average downpayment has dropped to only 5% to 10% over the past decade rather than the 10% to 20% it was in the past, according to Doug Perry, a first vice-president at mortgage lender Countrywide Home Loans Inc. Under the right conditions, Countrywide is even willing to lend homebuyers 103% of the value of their new home to cover their closing costs, too.

In part, the aggressive tactics of mortgage lenders have been made possible by the automated underwriting systems developed in recent years by the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac). These two government-created companies buy 70% of new mortgages in the U.S. and repackage them as mortgage-backed securities, which they then sell to investors.

The new underwriting systems being used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are analogous to the credit-scoring systems used by banks, allow for higher loan-to-income ratios than in the past to encourage home buying. That's good for borrowers, but the relaxed ratios could pose serious problems in the future. For one, there is already evidence that defaults are rising, particularly at the low end of the market...

...
Moreover, investors in mortgage-backed securities have always assumed that the two mortgage companies are backed by an implicit government guarantee that investors would be bailed out in the event of big mortgage defaults.
Ultimately, the Clinton Administration pursued a policy to increase home ownership among low-income families by increasing the incentives for banks to make high-risk loans, putting the taxpayers on the line.  This policy fit in well with President Bush's "ownership society" philosophy, so the problem is a bipartisan one.  And, of course businesses saw the opportunity to reap profits with minimal risk -- the government would give them the incentive to make loans they might not otherwise have made with lower down payments, with the implicit guarantee that if things came tumbling down the government would bail them out.

That's not free market capitalism.  It might go against the conventional "wisdom" and greed was certainly involved, but greed is not the same as rational self interest; government intrusion in the marketplace fuels the former, while the latter is the basis of a free market -- a free market distorted by the government.
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Workers and Benefits

In response to this editorial in the Houston Chronicle, I wrote the following letter:

re:  "Let's you and her fight" [sic]

In the Wednesday op-ed concerning "family issues", the Chronicle decries the state of the American worker with regard to government-enforced benefits for American workers.  In claiming that Americans enjoy "paltry maternal benefits compared to other industrialized nations" and that "there is no area of family concerns in which the United States shines", the editorial board calls for greater government intrusion on businesses and employers to force them to provide more benefits to the American worker.

What the Chronicle editorialists ignore, however, is that doing so raises the cost of labor, providing a disincentive for businesses to hire workers.  Even with the US economy in a downturn with regard to the labor market, our current 6.1% unemployment rate, considered high in the US, is still lower than most industrialized countries, especially ones that have government requirements concerning paid leave benefits and more socialized health care.  American workers do extremely well when comparing per capita income and GDP per capita -- American businesses, freer from the shackles of government, hire more workers and pay them more than their counterparts in other industrialized countries.

The question then becomes:  would we rather have more people working, holding jobs that are better paying, or more people unemployed, waiting for a job with those government-guaranteed benefits?  The Chronicle editorialists seem to prefer the latter.

The best way to encourage economic opportunity is not to expand the government, but rather to expand freedom.  Reduce the cost of labor and remove the disincentives to growth even further by reducing taxes and bureaucracy, and watch the economy grow even faster, creating more jobs, opportunity, and wealth.  Businesses and individuals are better stewards of their own money than bureaucrats in Washington, DC.

Sincerely,
Dave Smith
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Go "Forth"

One of the best albums of the 1990s was Urban Hymns by The Verve.  The album was a top-to-bottom tour de force of swirling guitars and soaring, atmospheric ruminations on God, life, betrayal, death, and love.  Unfortunately, behind the music was personal conflict that drove the band apart.  Ironically, not only did the resulting moderate fame spurred by the album's hit "Bittersweet Symphony" exacerbate the friction among the band's members, but the Rolling Stones sued the band over the unauthorized sampling of the symphonic backbone of the song; not only did the band break up after their only bona fide hit, they didn't make any money on it.

It is now 10 years later, and time heals at least many wounds.  The Verve are back with a new album titled Forth.  Apparently making smart, deep, virtuoso albums is like riding a bike, because the band picks up exactly where they left off without skipping a beat, so to speak.  Whether lamenting the emptiness of consumerism or pondering deeper issues of love, God, soul, and betrayal (again), the songs are poignant and beautiful at times, rocking and noisy at others.  Musically, the band is tight and cohesive, and Richard Ashcroft returns as a premier rock & roll frontman.  Nobody does deep philosophical longing within a rock and roll context quite like The Verve, yet they do it without sounding self important or too earnest for their own good.

Highlights on the album include the first single, the fast and furious "Love Is Noise", the multilayered and mellow "Judas", the longingful "I See Houses", and the swirling lustrous "Valium Skies"; however, going against the grain of the single-song iTunes download era, the songs work best as a collection, as an actual album -- something of a rarity since the demise of the LP and CD.  Like Urban Hymns before it, the whole is better than the sum of its parts.  Resist the temptation to cherry pick individual songs and buy the whole thing.  This album took 10 years, but it is definitely worth the wait.
Tags: Music  
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Innovation and Competition

In response to today's Thomas Friedman column, I sent this letter to the Houston Chronicle:

re:  "The American Capacity to Innovate Is Steadily Eroding"

Thomas Friedman is correct in at least part of his central thesis:  innovation is central to economic prosperity.  Unfortunately, Friedman continues to advocate increasing government regulation of the economy; such intrusion has a negative impact on innovation.  It is competition in the free market that spurs innovation, not government regulation or research grants.  Rather than increasing the size and scope of government, a better way to promote innovation and economic growth is to decrease government.  Lower taxes on capital investment and, yes, on profits unleash the private sector, promoting an atmosphere conducive to capitalism's creativity.  The government does not have any special expertise at promoting which areas of investment provide the best returns, and government subsidies and grants promote giveaways to special interests at taxpayer expense.

Sincerely,
Dave Smith

Tags: economics  
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Game On for November

This political campaign has been one for the ages, especially for those of us who consider ourselves political junkies.  Nearly every manner of intrigue and nuance has been involved, and we're just now getting to the heart of the general campaign.

First of all, whatever one thinks of Barack Obama's politics, it is certainly an uplifting story to see the USA have an African-American with basically a 50-50 shot of winning the Presidency.  In becoming the Democratic nominee, he defeated the wife of a former President (much to that particular President's chagrin), as well as much more well-established party luminaries who no doubt thought that their own respective times had come (one striking example:  longtime Senator Joe Biden, now #2 to Obama).  Obama did so having served, at the time of his announcement, less than two years in our national legislature.  If the rise of Barack Obama shows nothing else, it shows the road to even the highest office in the land is not reserved only for the rich and connected.  This fact emphatically re-affirms the basic tenets of the American dream:  we all have the opportunity to achieve in this country, not just a wealthy (or white) elite.

Obama's opponent is, of course, John McCain.  Here we have a candidate who was left for dead (figuratively speaking, of course) as late as this time last year.  A candidate who had laid off nearly all of his campaign staff because he was out of money, and seemed to be continuing his campaign in a quixotic quest to keep his issues of reform and national security on the table.  Along the way, he defeated better-funded candidates with more cache from Law & Order's Fred Thompson to "America's Mayor" Rudy Giuliani.  Again, this shows that regardless of how well-connected one might be, regardless of how much money one might have, the American political scene is one that depends more on the ability to woo voters than to raise campaign cash.

Then we get to the most surprising player of all in the election game of 2008:  Republican VP Nominee Sarah Palin.  If Barack Obama's rise has been astounding, new superlatives might be necessary to describe her ascent.  She rose through the ranks of grassroots Alaska politics:  from city council and then mayor of a small town in Alaska to the head of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to Governor of Alaska.  Ironically, when Frank Murkowski was elected Governor and resigned the US Senate, he considered appointing her to his Senate seat.  He appointed his daughter instead, and Palin defeated him in the subsequent Republican primary before beating a former Democratic governor in the general election.  Her rise has been noted at each step for a strong commitment to reform and to shaking up the established power structure.

The Palin pick not only made history, but McCain could have made no other choice for running mate that would've electrified the grassroots of the Republican Party.  In Minneapolis, all the buzz was about Gov. Palin, and more people watched her acceptance speech than watched McCain's or Obama's.  But again, we have a complete outsider -- Juneau is closer to Washington state than Washington, DC.  The Palin family is far from wealthy and connected; her husband is a commercial fisherman and oilfield worker (and, interestingly, a union member).

Whichever ticket wins in November, we are witnessing history in the making -- either the first African American President, or the first female Vice President.  We are also witnessing barriers coming down in other, more subtle ways -- the de-centralization of power, for example.  In very few countries and very eras could we see such a confluence of meteoric rises.  In very few elections could we see such a shaking of the establishment.

Tags: Politics  
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A Politician Being Political? Surely Not!

In response to this E.J. Dionne opinion piece, I sent the following letter to the Houston Chronicle:

re:  "GOP convention has been McCain at his cynical worst"

In his criticism of John McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, E.J. Dionne describes the pick as "cynical" and "quintessentially political".  Well then.  Imagine a politician, running for office in a political campaign, making a choice that was actually political in nature. 
In singling out McCain's decision, he seems to imply that making a "political" choice is the exception, not the rule.  I would propose that the opposite is true.
 
As for the charge of cynicism, whether or not one agrees with her politics and worldview, Gov. Palin has energized the grassroots of the Republican Party and gotten the attention of the American electorate.  That hardly seems to be any more cynical than the Democratic Party choosing a candidate with similar qualities to lead its own ticket.
 
Sincerely,
Dave Smith
Tags: Politics  
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Renewable Energy Technology

In response to Thomas Friedman's column "And Then There Was One", I sent the following letter to the Houston Chronicle:

In his Wednesday column, Thomas Friedman dismisses Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s desire to take advantage of her state’s abundant oil and gas resources.  Mr. Friedman claims that “ET”, or “renewable energy technology”, will become the next “great global industry” over the next few years in much the same way that information technology (IT) has done so over the past several years.  His prediction may well be true, but he further asserts that for “ET” to “rival and surpass” IT requires government-imposed restraints on individual liberty and taxpayer-funded subsidies of special interests.  In doing so, he neglects to recognize that IT’s success has been the fruit of private sector innovation and development in the free market rather than centralized government planning and spending of the public’s dime.

Tags: oil   Energy  
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